Posts

Renewed Horn Fighting Raises Existing Pressure on Bab el-Mandeb Transit

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The 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement has effectively collapsed, triggering a multi-front war that threatens to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa, and the conflict in Ethiopia erupting into global headlines. The immediate catalyst was the formation of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition of seven armed groups including the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which launched a coordinated offensive to overthrow Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. This alliance claims that the federal government has failed to implement the peace deal, particularly regarding the status of Western Tigray and the rights of displaced persons, arguing that military resistance is now the only path to securing political inclusion and autonomy. They contend that the government’s recent election, which they boycotted as illegitimate due to the exclusion of key regions, proved that dialogue is no longer viable. Conversely, the federal government maintains that it is defendin...
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The Chain of Ownership

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Jean Metzinger's 1913 painting, Woman with a Fan, has finally been returned to its rightful owners. Jean Metzinger was one of Cubism's leading practitioners and theorists. Around 1919 art dealer Paul Citroen acquired a large group of works from a Berlin gallery and brought them to the Netherlands. In 1928 Emanuel Lewenstein bought the painting from Citroen, who was his cousin and a major influence on his collection. Between 1930–40, Lewenstein's widow is believed to have deposited the canvas and other works at the Stedelijk Museum, Amsterdam for safekeeping. In October 1940, an unknown buyer acquired it at forced sale at auction in Amsterdam (most likely via Frederik Muller & Co., then notorious for handling looted art), months after the German invasion; by then the widow had died and the children had emigrated. In the 1950s, the painting resurfaced after a decade-long gap in the record. Held by the Sidney Janis Gallery in New York, between 1953-59, it was sold by Janis...
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The Economic Causes of War

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Preface We are accustomed to viewing the relationship between war and the economy as a one-way street: wars destroy economies, and economic recovery follows in their wake. The literature on how conflict reduces GDP, spikes inflation, and burdens governments with debt is vast and well-documented. Yet, we rarely ask the reverse question: how does the economy drive nations toward war? Historically, we notice these economic precursors only after the first shots have been fired. This book aims to correct that asymmetry. It argues that war is not merely a political failure, but often an economic inevitability—a predictable outcome of resource scarcity, trade collapses, and fiscal stress. To understand the economic roots of conflict, we must first dismantle the modern illusion that financial markets operate in a vacuum. Recent analysis of the relationship between the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury yields reveals a complex, bidirectional feedback loop. While headlines often simplify this as ...
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Advisory: Paranormal Subject Matter

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The mock interview presented here is my homework for AlienFest 2026, and audience discussion afterwards, with Jeremy Norrie and Mike Bara. AlienFest 2026 is a free, family-friendly "cosmic celebration" of aliens and UAPs happening Saturday, September 26, 2026 from 11:00 AM–3:00 PM at the Windmill Library (7060 W. Windmill Ln, Las Vegas, Nevada), hosted by the Las Vegas-Clark County Library District. Scheduled highlights include Jason Martell (History Channel’s Ancient Aliens) on ancient astronaut theory, Mike Bara on government UFO/UAP disclosures, an Alien Costume Contest, and a interview with Jeremy Norrie and Mike Bara. For a sample of Norrie’s speculative filmmaking, see “Who They Are” on TubiTV: tubitv.com/person/720a89/jeremy-norrie. Interviewer: Thank you for joining us. We’re looking ahead to Alienfest, where documentarian Jeremy Norrie will be appearing alongside Mike Bara. Based on the schedule, Norrie is presenting The Fifth Witness: UFO Crash-Retrievals Uncovered ...
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Bite the Bullet

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While scrolling through the news today, two stories caught my eye that seem worlds apart, but share a surprising structural likeness: 1. the reports on Senator Grassley’s push for a temporary U.S. diesel export embargo to protect farmers from soaring costs; 2. the details of the U.K. government’s decision[*] to place a temporary hold on the export of a rare Renaissance statue. At first glance, the comparison might seem absurd—comparing millions of barrels of fuel to a single eight-inch bronze—but both scenarios involve a government stepping in to restrict free trade in the name of national interest, prompting the question: why not treat the diesel crisis with the same nuanced "temporary hold" logic used to save U.K. cultural treasures? Before we jump on the bandwagon of an immediate ban on foreign sales of U.S. diesel, let's explore whether the U.K.’s approach offers a better template than an embargo, or if the fundamental differences between a unique work of art and a fu...
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Keep Calm and Carry On

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How a New Princeton Study "Disproves" AI Self-Improvement Alarmism Synopsis: A recent study led by Princeton University researchers Peter Kirgis and Sayash Kapoor challenges the narrative that current AI systems are on the verge of recursive self-improvement and runaway superintelligence.  Published in August 2026, the research uses a method called "shadow evaluation" to test whether AI agents can conduct original, open-ended scientific research without human oversight. The study found that while AI agents mastered the engineering and coding tasks required for research, they fundamentally lacked curiosity and discernment needed for discovery.  While the study proves that recursive self-improvement is not possible with current technology, it leaves open future computing breakthroughs that might overcome these specific limitations. The findings suggest that AI progress is an incremental process gated by human oversight rather than an uncontrollable autonomous event. T...
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Let Them Eat Cake

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The Weekend Read: What Macron's G7 Call Actually Signals For readers who missed the late edition Friday story (and are catching up), based on the OilPrice.com report published 4:00 PM CDT, Sept 18 (plus media reporting) the headline event is, in one paragraph: President Macron announced Friday he will convene G7 energy ministers "in the coming weeks" to coordinate stock levels, export cooperation, and production capacity — and to consider a second coordinated drawdown of emergency oil reserves.   The trigger: Saudi Aramco told at least two European refiners they will receive zero crude under term contracts in October, after drone strikes on September 11 knocked out three pumping stations on the East–West pipeline and disrupted loadings at the Red Sea port of Yanbu.   Aramco hopes to restore partial flow within days and full capacity in roughly six weeks, meanwhile it has rerouted about 60 million barrels through the Persian Gulf and ship-to-ship transfers off Sohar, Oman,...
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