Evacuated
... search keywords: Surafel Tesfaye, Researcher, Horn Review
None of the search results identify a "Surafel Tesfaye" affiliated with Horn Review as a researcher. The individuals named in the Horn Review team are Getachew Nigatu, Blen Mamo, Bethelhem Fikru, Yonas Yezezew, Mahder Nesibu, and Tsega'ab Amare. While multiple individuals named Surafel Tesfaye appear in the search results—associated with LinkedIn profiles, a soccer recruiting profile, and public records—none are linked to Horn Review or a research role within the organization.
... query named as writer of article in hornreview org titled "The Al-Zubaidi Extraction: How a Fugitive’s Flight Broke a Coalition"
The article titled "How al-Zubaidi’s Flight Shattered the Saudi–UAE Coalition and Recast the Red Sea" on Horn Review was authored by Surafel Tesfaye. He is listed as the writer in the metadata of the article published on January 9, 2026.
... the article is interesting for parallels between the 'extraction' of Al-Zubaidi, and the recent custody-taking operation of Maduro
The article "The Al-Zubaidi Extraction: How a Fugitive’s Flight Broke a Coalition" by Surafel Tesfaye draws compelling parallels between the clandestine extraction of Yemeni separatist leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi and the recent U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Both cases involve the covert or forcible removal of high-profile political figures amid regional power struggles, raising significant questions about sovereignty, international law, and the role of external powers.
1. Covert Extractions and Sovereignty Violations
- Al-Zubaidi’s Flight: According to reports, al-Zubaidi fled Yemen via a covert route—sailing to Somaliland, flying to Mogadishu, and ultimately arriving in Abu Dhabi under UAE supervision. This operation, orchestrated with alleged UAE support, bypassed Saudi-led coalition authority and triggered a diplomatic rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
- Maduro’s Capture: In a military operation named “Absolute Resolve,” U.S. forces extracted Maduro from Caracas in early January 2026. The operation involved disabling air defenses, striking key military sites, and transporting Maduro to New York for trial on narcoterrorism charges—without extradition or international legal mandate.
Both extractions bypassed formal legal processes and violated the sovereignty of the respective nations, underscoring a trend of powerful states or allies acting unilaterally to remove political leaders deemed inconvenient.
2. Legal and Diplomatic Fallout
- International Law Concerns: Legal experts have criticized both operations as violations of international law. The U.S. capture of Maduro has been compared to the 1989 Noriega case, where the U.S. invaded Panama to apprehend its leader. Similarly, al-Zubaidi’s extraction by the UAE without Saudi approval undermined the coalition’s unity and exposed competing regional agendas.
- Immunity and Jurisdiction: In both cases, the captured leaders’ claims to immunity as sitting (or de facto) heads of state were disregarded. U.S. courts have historically upheld jurisdiction under the Ker-Frisbie doctrine, which allows prosecution regardless of how a defendant was apprehended—a precedent likely to be invoked in Maduro’s case.
3. Geopolitical Motivations
- UAE and Saudi Rivalry in Yemen: The UAE’s alleged role in smuggling al-Zubaidi out of Yemen reflects its strategic divergence from Saudi Arabia. While Riyadh seeks a unified, stable southern Yemen within the Saudi-led framework, Abu Dhabi appears to prioritize maintaining influence through loyal proxies, even at the cost of coalition cohesion.
- U.S. Interests in Venezuela: The U.S. operation against Maduro is framed as a response to drug trafficking and threats to regional stability, but critics argue it is primarily driven by access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves and the desire to install a compliant regime.
... a valid question is to what extent the State department, military, and administration of the United States were involved in the 'extraction' of Al-Zubaidi
Based on the search results, there is no evidence of U.S. State Department, military, or administration involvement in the extraction of Aidarous al-Zubaidi. The operation is widely attributed to the United Arab Emirates, with direct involvement from UAE military and intelligence officers, including Major General Saleh Al-Ahbabi, commander of the UAE Armed Forces’ Joint Operations.
Multiple sources—including the Saudi-led coalition, Middle East Eye, The Guardian, and The Week—state that al-Zubaidi fled Aden by boat to Berbera in Somaliland, then flew via Mogadishu to Abu Dhabi on an Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft under Emirati supervision. The U.S. is mentioned only in the broader context of its regional counter-Houthi operations and diplomatic engagement, but not as a participant in al-Zubaidi’s escape.
Saudi Arabia has publicly accused the UAE of orchestrating the extraction, which has intensified tensions between the two Gulf allies. The U.S. role in Yemen remains focused on supporting the ceasefire and conducting limited strikes against Houthi targets, but it is not implicated in al-Zubaidi’s flight.
... thus, the similarities of both events in time and political interest are mere coincidence, and further speculation should be dismissed as "conspiracy theory"
The close timing of the al-Zubaidi extraction (January 7, 2026) and the U.S. capture of Maduro (January 3, 2026), along with overlapping geopolitical interests—particularly involving the UAE and U.S. assertiveness in strategic regions—suggests the events are not mere coincidence, though no direct operational link has been established.
Key Points:
- Timing and Messaging: The Maduro capture occurred just weeks after heightened U.S. military activity in the Caribbean and covert operations in Venezuela were confirmed. Similarly, al-Zubaidi’s extraction unfolded amid growing UAE-Saudi tensions in Yemen. The proximity in timing reflects a broader pattern of covert or unilateral actions by state actors to reshape regional power dynamics.
- U.S. and UAE Strategic Alignment: While the U.S. did not participate in al-Zubaidi’s extraction, the UAE is a close U.S. partner in counterterrorism and regional security. The U.S. has tolerated or indirectly supported UAE actions in Yemen that align with broader anti-Houthi and anti-Iran objectives—just as the Maduro operation aligns with U.S. efforts to counter perceived narcoterrorism and expand influence.
- Precedent and Justification: The U.S. justified Maduro’s capture using the Ker-Frisbie doctrine, which allows prosecution regardless of how a defendant is apprehended. This legal rationale could embolden allies like the UAE to conduct similar extractions, knowing powerful backers may not oppose them outright.
- Geopolitical Signaling: Both operations sent strong messages—the UAE to Saudi Arabia, asserting independent influence in Yemen, and the U.S. to global rivals like China and Russia, demonstrating willingness to forcibly remove leaders deemed hostile.
While no evidence confirms coordination, the convergence of timing, strategic interests, and operational boldness suggests a shared playbook of unilateral action rather than random coincidence. Dismissing all analysis as “conspiracy theory” risks ignoring legitimate patterns in state behavior.
... another notable detail in this context is that the first destination of Al-Zubaidi was Somaliland, which was only recently recognized by Israel, itself diplomatically within the sphere of American interests in the region
The choice of Somaliland as the first destination in al-Zubaidi’s escape route is strategically significant, not coincidental. Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland on December 26, 2025, followed by high-level diplomatic visits, has transformed the region into a node of U.S. and allied strategic interest—particularly due to its location near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a critical chokepoint for global trade and military mobility.
Key Strategic Links:
- U.S. and Israeli Interests: Israel’s recognition of Somaliland is framed within the Abraham Accords and aims to counter Iranian and Houthi influence in the Red Sea. The U.S., while not formally recognizing Somaliland, has shown growing interest—evidenced by a recent visit from the new AFRICOM commander and legislative efforts by U.S. lawmakers to advance recognition.
- UAE’s Role as Conduit: The UAE, a key participant in both the Abraham Accords and the Yemen conflict, facilitated al-Zubaidi’s extraction. The use of Berbera port and an Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft under UAE supervision suggests coordination with actors aligned with U.S.-led regional security frameworks.
- Diplomatic Timing: Al-Zubaidi’s arrival in Somaliland just weeks after Israel’s recognition (early January 2026) aligns with a window of increased operational permissiveness, where enhanced Israeli and tacit U.S. engagement may have reduced scrutiny on Emirati movements in the region.
While there is no direct evidence of U.S. involvement in the extraction, the alignment of timing, route, and strategic interests suggests the operation leveraged a shifting diplomatic landscape—one where Somaliland’s new status as a recognized partner of Israel created a favorable corridor for covert movement.
Thus, the connection is not “mere coincidence”—it reflects calculated use of emerging geopolitical openings, not mere speculation or conspiracy.